一位漫步者的告白

只要經濟有成長或貨幣會貶值，房價上漲就是大概率事件；各國央行大撒幣當下，貨幣貶值與房子保(升)值幾乎成了大多數人的共識。

As long as the economy grows or the currency will depreciate, a rise in housing prices is a high probability event; when most country’s central banks are casting money into the market, currency devaluation and house maintain (appreciation) value have almost become the consensus of most people.

在恐慌/貪婪情緒的趨勢，民眾一旦手上有了足夠的錢就迫不及待將它換成房子，因為對貨幣貶值與房子增值有很強烈的預期，在過去幾十年房價永遠上漲的事實下，導致溢價(超漲)嚴重。

In the trend of fearful/greedy, once people have enough money, they can’t wait to change it into a housing market, because they have strong expectations of currency depreciation and house appreciation. In the past few decades, the fact that house prices have always risen led to high premium (over-increasing).

舉例，一棟房子價值1000萬但市場預期貨幣未來會貶值，這間房子可能明天就能被賣到1200-1300萬，這時候房子抗通脹的意義已經不大，不應用10年後的價格買房去抗10年後的通脹。

For example, if a house is worth 10 million but the market expects that the currency will depreciate in the future, the house may be sold for 12-13 million tomorrow. At this time, the house’s anti-inflation is of less significance, shouldn’t use 10-year-later price to buy a house. That couldn’t fight against inflation after 10 years.

縱使長期貨幣肯定不斷貶值，但仍會有上下震盪，100年貶值的大週期涵蓋幾個10年、20年穩定或小幅升值的小週期，比如日本通貨緊縮都快30年了，但以100年的尺度看日本還是通脹的。

Even if the long-term currency depreciation is certain, it will still fluctuate. The large cycle of 100-year depreciation covers several small cycles of stable or small appreciation in 10 or 20 years. Japan is still inflationary in terms of the scale, even had passed through depreciation for 30 years.

房價若始終居高不下、穩賺不賠，最後社會資本就會往上堆疊，排擠其它產業資源，如同2008年美國次貸風暴翻版。政府也將不斷修復貨幣購買力維持信用，畢竟正常經濟通貨還要靠貨幣交換，無法以房產或股票等資產中介商品流通。

If housing prices remain high and make steady profits without losing money, social capital will eventually stack up, crowding out other industrial resources, just like the 2008 US subprime mortgage crisis. The government will also continue to repair the purchasing value of money to maintain credit. After all, normal economy still relies on currency exchange, but cannot intermediate the circulation of commodities with assets such as real estate or stocks.