一位漫步者的告白

我規劃的價值投資策略著重綜合評比，既有評定指標分為15項：股東權益報酬率(ROE)、股價淨值比(PBR)、變異數、殖利率、本益比(PE)、股利發放率、EPS成長率、GVI價值成長指標、董監持股、本益成長比、自由現金成長、自由現金發放率、高登報酬率、負債比、營益率

The value investment strategy I plan focuses on comprehensive evaluation, and the existing evaluation indicators are divided into 15 items: Return On Equity (ROE), Price-Book Ratio (PBR), variance, dividend yield, Price-to-Earnings ratio (PE), dividend payout rate, EPS growth rate, GVI, directors and supervisors' shareholding, equity growth ratio, free cash growth, free cash distribution rate, Gordon's rate of return, debt ratio, profitability ratio.

依各項數值個別相對比較結果，取綜合分數較高者列為次季投資標的，該準則奉行約莫10年

According to the individual relative comparison results of each value, the one with the higher comprehensive score is listed as the investment target for the next quarter. The standard had been implemented for about 10 years.

不過，這項策略邏輯無法克服人性取向的挑戰，結論就是：股價淨值比低於1且趨近於零的資產，獲利期間相對較短、漲幅偏大、贏面極高。

However, the logic of this strategy can’t overcome the challenge of human orientation, which conclusion is that assets with a Price-Book Ratio of less than 1 and approaching zero have relatively short profit periods, large gains, and extremely high wins.

有鑒於此，後續投資策略因應做法如後：

1.每季照例編列總資產10%作為列選標的投資額度，惟評價資產發現低於淨值情事，擇該額度50%分散投資價值嚴重低估標的。

2.年度封關前最後一個週五購入2項剛性需求資產，以總資產10%為限，收益階段性沖銷虧損，或作為增幅獲益提高資產報酬，年末總結成效。

3.本投資策略異動預期提升收益績效與縮短持續期間，有效發揮其應有流動性，在變動漸劇的市場裡，投資人可望成為存活率最高的贏家。

In view of this, the follow-up investment strategy should be as follows:

1. As usual, 10% of the total assets are listed as the investment quota for the selected target every quarter. But, when any evaluation assets are found to be lower than the net value, the 50% diversified investment value of the quota is selected to invest the seriously underestimated target.

2. Purchase 2 rigid demand assets on the last Friday before the end of the year, with a limit of 10% of total assets. Gains will be used to offset losses in stages, or increase asset returns. The summarized results will be ready by the end of the year.

3. The change in this investment strategy is expected to improve return performance and shorten the duration, as well as effectively bring out liquidity. In a market that changes very gradually, investors are expected to become winners with the highest survival rate.