- Dec 13 Tue 2022 10:04
全球新版圖
- Dec 06 Tue 2022 20:13
通膨求生
新冠肺炎Covid-19爆發以來,全球不尋常的紓困,帶來猛烈的通膨。人們不只「身體」健康受到疫病攻擊,「身家」財產也一併上沖下洗。
本書帶領讀者回顧聯準會在通膨時期的作為,分析全球經濟未來動向,建立最符合趨勢的投資策略。
★強勢回歸的通膨時代
-政府狂發現金,為何無法真正刺激消費?
- Dec 01 Thu 2022 10:38
投資者屬性
因應科技發展,參與金融市場的角色屬性也隨之改變
現在的主角分為「大象」、「獅子」、「螞蟻」、「超級螞蟻」
大象(長線投資者):關注成長潛力、重視公司價值,分批持有,俟景氣或基本面反轉而賣出。
獅子(專業投機家):觀察資金流動、投資情緒與價格偏差,進出市場時機視獲利/虧損而定。
螞蟻(散戶投資人):頻繁出手導致交易成本侵蝕獲利,投資(機)對其而言是高消費娛樂,最終無法累積財富。
超級螞蟻(機構交易者或電腦程式交易):藉快速且頻繁的交易降低成本,創造穩定獲利,也是引發市場急劇波動的主因。
每種屬性運用的投資策略均有獨到之處,也確實能在市場獲利
然而,面臨虧損也大有人在,差別在於對時間的認知程度與心理素質是否強健
資金配置與轉換在投資策略中佔極重要的角色,若操作不當致資金停滯,將產生流動性風險破壞投資結構的完整性
換句話說,未來的成功或許可期,但卻過不了眼前的門檻,「存續期間」成為最大公約數
此外,多數投資人有無法獨立思考的「從眾」特性,強大的心理素質有助於隔絕市場雜訊,在多空兩難之間做最佳抉擇
避免追高殺低,達成「危機入市」與「華麗轉身」的最高境界
In response to the development of technology, the role attributes of participating in the financial market have also changed.
The current protagonists are divided into "elephant", "lion", "ant" and "super ant".
Elephant (long-term investor): Focus on growth potential, pay attention to the company's value, hold in batches, and sell when the economy or fundamentals reverse.
Lion (professional speculator): Observe capital flow, investment sentiment and price deviation, and the timing of entering and exiting the market depends on profit/loss.
Ant (retail investor): Frequent selling leads to transaction costs eroding profits. Investment or speculation is a high-consumption entertainment for them, and ultimately they cannot accumulate wealth.
Super Ants (institutional traders or computer program trading): reduce costs and create stable profits through fast and frequent transactions, which is also the main cause of sharp market fluctuations.
The investment strategy used by each attribute is unique, and it can indeed make a profit in the market.
However, there are many people who face losses. The difference lies in the degree of cognition of time and whether the psychological quality is strong.
Fund allocation and conversion play an extremely important role in investment strategies. If funds are stagnated due to improper operations, liquidity risks will occur and the integrity of the investment structure will be destroyed.
In other words, the future success may have a certain view, but it cannot pass the immediate threshold, and the "period of existence" becomes the greatest common divisor.
In addition, most investors have the characteristics of "conformity" that cannot think independently. A strong psychological quality helps to isolate market noise and make the best choice between long and short dilemmas.
Avoid chasing highs and killing lows, and achieve the highest state of "entering the market in crisis" and "turning around gorgeously".
- Nov 28 Mon 2022 14:04
企業的本質
企業,在媒體與消費者眼中,常是自私貪婪、為求獲利不擇手段,讓社會陷入「資本主義vs.社會主義」的論戰。
商業的文化、知識、理想、情感,絕不僅是獲利的附屬品,人們會在乎自己的工作,並從中尋找意義。
成功企業的重要因素:信任、價值理念、管理品質、領導與決策力、冒險創新,這也是社會與國家妥善治理、永續經營的基礎。
本書援引資料,結合經濟學家的觀點論證:「最佳的商業,就是道德企業(ethical enterprise)」。
突破思維發想:
- Nov 26 Sat 2022 21:59
111年第三季投資報告
- Nov 22 Tue 2022 07:30
惡意如何帶來正義?
若行使惡意是為了追求更公平的局面,何為善,又何為惡?
經濟學家亞當斯密宣稱「人的理性會勝過一切」,然而,如果既損人又不利己,為什麼還有人會做?
本書從心理學、腦科學、基因等角度,分析人在賽局情境中如何行事,了解惡意可以是為了支配他人,也可以是為了反對他人的支配。以美國總統大選、英國脫歐等例子,分析政治中的惡意;從宗教的形成,思考人們執行惡意的手段。
- Nov 17 Thu 2022 18:52
價值與價格解析
價值與價格孰重孰輕的爭論,始終未歇
價值取決於物品製造成本與投注勞動,價格涉及市場供需與消費情緒
這兩者,構成指數漲跌,也就是常見的波動
其實都很重要,端視當下的時機側重
投資要想獲利,就該尋找幻化局勢中的不變邏輯與原則
其一,是價值真偽;其二,是趨勢研判
換言之,一旦市場出現低於價值的價格,就該大膽分批搶進,然後持有至價格回升
勝率取決於其是否具備強大的競爭優勢與存續條件,絕非任何低於價值的標的都值得投資
不論何種情況,市場揭露的消息均屬落後指標,激發的是情緒與波動,可視為雜音
投資得仰賴獨立思考、堅定信念、努力不懈,是精神的勞動,可訴諸終身的志業
漠視的人,只能將經濟大權交付政府與企業,有條件的生存
The debate over the importance of value and price has never stopped.
The value depends on the cost of manufacturing items and betting labor, but the price involves market supply and demand and consumer sentiment.
These two constitute the rise and fall of the index, which is the common fluctuation.
In fact, they are all important, depending on the current timing.
If you want to make a profit in investment, you should look for the unchanging logic and principles in the progressing situation.
The first is the authenticity of value; the second is trend research and judgment.
In other words, once the market price is lower than the value, it is time to boldly rush in batches, and then hold until the price rebounds.
The winning rate depends on whether it has a strong competitive advantage and survival conditions, and absolutely not any target that is lower than the value is worth investing in.
In any case, the news revealed by the market is a backward indicator, which stimulates emotions and fluctuations, can be regarded as noise.
Investing depends on independent thinking, firm belief, and unremitting efforts. It is spiritual labor and can be resorted to a lifelong career.
People who ignore it can only hand over economic power to the government and enterprises, but survive conditionally.
- Nov 07 Mon 2022 14:11
我們為什麼要讀書? 為什麼要工作?