- Oct 31 Mon 2022 20:36
精準轉向
累積經驗(技能、人際、認知)+創造機會(偶然)=人生轉向
- Oct 27 Thu 2022 10:46
愚蠢理論
人,很奇妙,專騙自己
之所以被騙,是因為連自己都騙
以高端為例,財報沒有賺錢為何有人要買(同之前的浩鼎),因為政府帶頭就可輕信!?
以台積電為例,仰仗蘋果等大企業下單,還是護國神山美名,或是技術第一的驕傲,現在結果是好的嗎!?
以航運為例,長榮曾經發放40個月的年終,那份賺一次錢的傲氣隨著減資而消逝,現世報(灰犀牛)來的真快!?
這就是人,始終天真地犯傻,只把錯推給欺騙的他人,從未檢討自己的錯誤
若說天擇,樂觀的天性即是演化機制,自私的人性也是
所有的敗象財報早已揭露,保持理性就不會上當,但說的簡單,千萬別低估人類愚蠢與健忘的程度
People, who are amazing, always deceive themselves. This is the reason why they were deceived.
Taking the high-end (6547) as an example, the financial report didn’t show up the result of making money, why would anyone buy it (same as the previous Haoding (4174)). Base on the government can take the lead doesn’t mean it can be trusted!?
Take TSMC (2330) as an example, relying on Apple and other big companies to place orders, or protect the country's reputation, or the pride of technology No. 1, but is the result good now!?
Take shipping industry as an example, Evergreen (2603) once issued a 40-month year-end bonuses, the once-at-a-time arrogance of making money disappeared with the capital reduction. Grey Rhino came so fast than you can imagine!?
This is a person who is always naive and foolish, only blaming others for deceit, never examining his own mistakes.
In the case of natural selection, the optimistic nature is the evolutionary mechanism, and so is the selfish human nature.
The financial reports have already been exposed all bad news, and you won’t be fooled if stay rational. However, it isn’t simply to take for granted; don’t underestimate the degree of human stupidity and forgetfulness.
- Oct 25 Tue 2022 06:57
用生活常識就能看懂財務報表
財務報表是一種語言學,中英夾雜的專有名詞看似複雜,其實靠常識就足以理解。
無須鑽研艱深數字與公式,只要運用個人生活中的財務思維,就能推導出公司經營的各種關鍵資訊,看穿投資密碼!
●瞭解三大報表立體觀,避免落入帳務造假陷阱!
●損益盈虧純屬帳面進出,預估淨利不等於現金!
●運用損益表與資產負債表,輕鬆判斷經營績效!
●看出現金流量的真相,掌握公司的獲利含金量!
- Oct 20 Thu 2022 19:34
解析創業
創業,涉及觀點與資本
兩者的差別除了先後順序,還有機會成本
先有觀點,然後資本,而後者的來源其實有許多選項
若無法引進外資,就必須自力救濟,但往往有資金短缺且額度不足的情況
另,若能成功眾籌或得到天使投資親睞,也會有利益不當驅使及倉促擴張的風險
因此,若想增加成功機率與規避風險,必須在兩者之間完美切割
個人認為:擁有觀點,但不介入資本
優點是可保持創新的獨立性,不致被利益分配所綁架
再者,觀點的前身是想法,未經市場驗證即毫無價值
想法需透過集思廣益與批判,才能成為具商業價值的觀點
其歷程除了時間與精力外,機會成本微乎其微
(你的時間沒想像中值錢,因為無不可替代性)
以觀點塑造決策方向,讓資本為其奔跑,就是風險極低的創業方式
然而,這需要對局勢的充分認知,與理解人性
雖說與他人同行可以走得更遠,但這隱含了倖存者偏差
更常見的是,因人誤事,導致一發不可收拾
隨著科技發展,個人的能力被無限放大,也因此,對人的依賴也相對降低
替代的概念是合作,利益作為驅策的誘因,生產效率將無限增加
對信任的妄想是商業大忌,也是弱者的專利,切勿輕信坊間的都市傳說
Entrepreneurship is involving ideas and capital.
The difference between both is not only the sequence, but also the opportunity cost.
Ideas first, then capital, and there are actually many options for the source of the latter.
If foreign capital cannot be introduced, it must be self-relief, but there is often a shortage of funds and insufficient quota.
In addition, if you can successfully crowdfund or get favored by angel investors, there will also be the risk of improperly motivated interests and hasty expansion.
Therefore, if you want to increase the chance of success and avoid risks, you must make a perfect cut between ideas and capital.
Personal opinion: only have a point of view, but do not get involved in capital.
The advantage is that it can maintain the independence of innovation and will not be kidnapped by the distribution of benefits.
Furthermore, thoughts are predecessors of ideas and are worthless without market verification.
Thoughts need to be brainstormed and critiqued before they become commercially viable ideas.
The process has little opportunity cost other than time and effort.
(Your time is not as valuable as imagine, because there is no irreplaceability.)
Shaping the direction of decision-making with ideas and letting capital run for it is a very low-risk way of starting a business.
However, this requires a full awareness of the situation, and an understanding of human nature.
While walking with others can go further, it implies survivorship bias.
More often, due to human error, it can get out of control.
With the development of science and technology, the ability of individuals has been infinitely amplified, and then, the dependence on people has also been relatively reduced.
The alternative concept is cooperation, interests are the incentives for improving, and production efficiency will be infinitely increased.
The delusion of trust is a business taboo, and it is also the patent of the weak. Don't believe in urban legends.
- Oct 17 Mon 2022 07:27
跟著肯恩費雪洞悉市場
- Oct 15 Sat 2022 08:36
市場分析2022.10.15
- Oct 10 Mon 2022 07:21
最美好、也最殘酷的翻身時代
資本主義是社會的遊戲規則,若無法改變,請玩得比他人出色;財富真正的價值不只是購買力,而是讓人擁有「選擇」的權利。
無數富人從房市或股市中誕生,既然如此,為什麼不學投資?「金錢」、「資產」、「債務」、「房產」、「股市」,掌握這5大關鍵,普通人也能創造不凡財富!
金錢─擴充運用認知,掌握流動的方向,創造價值。
- Oct 08 Sat 2022 08:05
與眾不同
持續在學習成長的路上,定有人相隨
短短一年,購置了房產,也透過專業談判獲得8位數贊助金
換言之,每年將增加6位數穩定獲利,資產跨越了1500萬門檻
下個階段,是10年內晉級「投資級法人」
這是終其一生的挑戰,值得付諸心力培養財管能力、擴充認知邊界,然後傳承,終結領薪職涯
所謂財富,是擁有選擇的自由後,自然湧入的交易媒介
庸庸碌碌,是年輕世代必經之路,抱怨是無意義的行徑
唯一的差別是,職涯20年過後,是否仍然「無可奈何」
與其歸咎環境、時代,不如檢討毫無作為的自己,將寶貴的資源(時間、金錢、精力等)投注在沒有回報之處
努力,人人會說;期許,大家皆有
對此總是一笑置之,因為明白「誠實」的艱難
若非誠實面對自己,憑什麼與眾不同,自然無法改變現狀!?
Continue on the road of learning and growth, there must be someone to follow.
In just one year, I purchased a real estate and obtained an 8-digit sponsorship through professional negotiation.
In other words, it will increase 6-digit stable profits every year, and the assets have crossed the threshold of 15 million NTD.
The next stage is to be promoted to "Investment-grade Juridical Person" within 10 years.
This is the challenge of a lifetime, and it’s worth putting in the effort to develop financial management capabilities, expand cognitive boundaries, and then pass it on to end a salaried career.
The so-called wealth is a medium of exchange that naturally flows into after having the freedom of choice.
Mediocrity is the must pass route for the younger generation, complaining is meaningless.
The only difference is whether, after 20 years in the career, they are still "helpless".
Instead of blaming the environment and the times, it is better to review your behavior and invest your precious resources (time, money, energy, etc.) to the right things.
"Do my best", everyone can say; expectations, everyone has.
Always laugh it off because I understand how hard it is to be "honest".
Without honesty to yourself, why are you so different? Thus, you cannot change the status quo!?
- Oct 03 Mon 2022 15:20
增長的邏輯
企業為何增長,又為何虛長?產業戰略過於宏觀、行銷卻屬微觀,兩者融合的理論可詮釋影響企業增長的動態因素,成為趨向穩定、可持續的思維利器!
傳統的管理策略規劃經常定義不清,或部分代表企業家/決策者的想法,並非指向一種必然性。本書將說明企業如何「從高度不確定性的環境中尋求某種確定性」,釐清市場博弈中必然的要素,構建「業務、客戶、競爭、差異化、不對稱、合作和價值」增長圖譜,為基業長青奠定基礎。
突破思維發想:
- Oct 01 Sat 2022 08:29
基金/債劵投資效益比較分析